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China Zhongji Investment team decodes the password to high-yield debt investment


In May 2019, based on macroeconomic analysis, asset allocation, and judgment of opportunities in the high-yield debt market, China Zhongji Investment launched its high-yield debt investment sector. In the nearly 18 months since, the high-yield debt team's products have maintained an absolute return of around 50%.

 

Today, Shen Xiao, head of high-yield debt investment at China Zhongji Investment, will share insights into China Zhongji Investment's investment logic in high-yield debt and reflections on future development.

 

High yield with relatively controllable risk

 

Over the past year, China Zhongji Investment's high-yield debt investment logic has been confirmed and further refined, and a wider range of profit models have been gradually explored. Currently, China Zhongji Investment adheres to three basic strategies:

 

1. Strengthen the concept of portfolio management

 

High-yield debt is a typical probability game. The so-called "excess coverage of yield over risk" needs to be achieved through diversification and accumulation of quantity. Moderate diversification and portfolio management are consistently applied basic methods, avoiding excessive concentration of holdings.

 

2. Emphasize both allocation and trading

 

Holding bonds to maturity is only one way to generate profits. In practice, the efficiency of profit-making through swing trading is also quite impressive.

To date, the proportion of bonds held to maturity is not high. Swing trading often yields better results, avoiding "reveal risk" and buying time. For low-risk assets (relatively low-risk within the high-yield category), there is a trading record of achieving a 6 yuan net price swing profit within a week. For deeply discounted bonds (full price below 30), there are occasional instances of doubling or even higher multiples within two weeks. For municipal bonds, especially PR corporate bonds, a riding strategy can effectively achieve swing profits.

 

3. Capture opportunities for "inefficient pricing"

 

Currently, the main opportunities for high-yield debt in China are in the secondary market. Liquidity pressures and internal control mechanisms can serve as reasons for institutions to sell at a discount. Capturing such opportunities to generate profits is much more cost-effective than purely speculating on credit risk. Roughly speaking, "opportunities at both ends are better than in the middle." In the range of net prices above 70 and below 20, the price is relatively inefficient, and the price is more favorable. Profits can be achieved through credit screening + trading. However, for popular bonds in the 50-60 range, the relationship between credit risk and price is relatively fair. We usually avoid these. For a target annualized portfolio return of 25%+, we can ignore these bonds; focusing on both ends is sufficient.

 

Enrich product types and strengthen institutional cooperation

 

The high-yield debt market is rapidly developing. To date, weak market efficiency remains the main source of excess returns. By improving credit research, strengthening portfolio management, and promptly capturing market sentiment fluctuations, there will be significant opportunities to obtain excess returns.
In the future, China Zhongji Investment will also increase its research efforts and investment scale in the high-yield debt field. We hope to cooperate with more institutional peers and investors to develop a variety of business models, including proprietary investment, senior/subordinated models, and client asset management, to better tap the profit potential of this new track.